Grabby aliens: when we'll meet them, how big they are, and other predictions

In the previous video, we talked about why humanity seems to have appeared very early in the universe: among the first civilizations that could ever appear. Earliness constitutes a riddle. It makes humanity’s situation seem rather mysterious. Robin Hanson, who introduced the idea of the great filter, solves this riddle by postulating that civilizations that he calls “grabby” will soon fill the universe. As anticipated, grabby aliens are the main assumption of a detailed model describing how such aliens expand and distribute in the universe. The model makes many interesting predictions, such as when we’ll meet grabby aliens, our chances of hearing alien messages, and becoming an interplanetary civilization ourselves. It also answers why we don’t see aliens yet, considering the universe’s large number of stars and galaxies. These predictions are the topic of this video.

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Robin Hanson’s paper on Grabby Aliens:

Grabby Aliens website:

The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?

The Grabby Aliens Model — 3D Sim, by Daniel Martin:

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Narration by Robert Miles:



0:00 – Introduction
1:50 – 3D simulation
2:48 – The power law
4:20 – Estimating “k”
5:03 – Estimating “n”
5:37 – Estimating “s”
9:52 – Model predictions
15:02 – SETI and our chance of becoming grabby
18:15 – Wrapping up
19:16 – Patreon & channel membership


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Matrix : les résonances, l'analyse de M. Bobine